Can Ron Paul still pull out a victory in Maine? By the numbers….

Posted: February 17, 2012 in Uncategorized

So the original (and erroneous) caucus results had Mitt Romney winning by 194 votes (we all knew this).
As reported by Ben Swann, Ron Paul picked up an additional 21 votes over Flipper in Waldo county and 16 in Waterville

Now – we’re down to 157

ASSUMING that we GOTV in Washington county and what remains to caucus in (Hancock county?) – I think it’s Hancock county – we still have a hill to climb (just trying to be realistic). We would have to get 158 MORE votes than Flipper in these caucuses in order to “win” Maine.

Last election, John McCain won this county. Which gives me hope. They obviously didn’t like Flipper then and since his numbers THIS election cycle are generally down, I would have to think that they will be down here as well. We MAY get a boost from froshy and Grinch voters but I wouldn’t count on it.

So, in order to pull this off I would think that AT A MINIMUM 500 people would have to caucus – and larger numbers would better and RON Paul would have to pull somewhere in the neighborhood of 70+ percent of the vote. If THOUSANDS show up, as the reporter from the Portland Press Herald intimated COULD happen, then I think our chances are EXCELLENT.
If hundreds show up, I would say, perhaps not.

The Wildcard? Besides the voter turnout I mean – is the RECOUNT. We all know the story of Belfast and how the GOP had already reported numbers (before they got a call from the town committee chairman) that had Romney winning in that town. So – if that happened in Belfast we all know it’s quite possible it happened in other places as well.

Honestly, I don’t think the vote in Washington county is going to make the difference. I think, now that the national spotlight is on the Maine GOP to get this right – that the numbers may look radically different than originally reported because they were obviously reporting fraudulent numbers – at least in some cases – to hand Flipper the win. It’s going to be an interesting story…..

If Romney ends up winning by even 1 vote, the media will continue to ignore the story of what happened here.

One final twist – Maine Republican Party chairman Charlie Webster said on Politico this morning that Romney, not Ron Paul, won Portland by 15 votes. He also said that many emailed vote returns “went to spam”. I don’t trust the Maine GOP as far as I can throw them so it’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out….

If Ron Paul ends up winning by even 1 vote (or a 1000) I think the media will CONTINUE to essentially ignore it but it will get at least a little play – let’s face it, we all know the narrative by now. Ron Paul wins – the state doesn’t matter. BUT, IT WILL GET SOME PLAY and it WILL change the narrative some. Let’s hope for the best.

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